Enter Fortress World
Still Flat...But A Lot More Complicated.
One of my early political influences in life was New York Times Journalist Thomas Friedman.
In high school, I read The World Is Flat, his award-winning book about globalization.
Friedman felt like he could have been my uncle. His writing felt very…familiar
He wrote about geopolitics, the Middle East, economics, and shared sweeping, big picture narratives about the future of society.
He was a perpetual optimistic, focused on advocating for human rights and the environment without compromising markets.
Also, of course, Jewish - and he lived in Bethesda, Maryland - near the University of Maryland where I later went for undergrad.
Friedman was an unabashed supporter of globalization, and loudly advocated for the positive changes it would bring.
The World Is Flat - far from being a “flat earther” conspiracist - was a narrative about how technology, politics, and economics were bringing the world closer together - and why globalization was worth celebrating.
From developments in micro-chips to shipping lanes, from deregulating tariffs to outsourcing labor in Bangladesh - the book was a sweeping romp through the rapidly advancing global economy in the mid 2000s.
In so many ways, Friedman absolutely nailed the analysis.
The entire work from home trend is essentially Friedman 101. Disrupt the physical office, work from anywhere, level the playing field for the entire global marketplace.
He was most certainly ahead of his time.
But but but…
(With futurists, there’s always a but)
Friedman got a lot of things right, but in his starry eyed optimism, he missed the downsides and how this globalization project might go off the rails.
Globalization introduced a few major problems that left developed Western countries without answers:
Immigration
-Unsustainably high immigration levels to Europe and United States have led to major integration issues, including terrorism in Europe.
Populism
-The rise of immigrants and outsourcing to other countries led to wage stagnation in middle class residents of developed countries, who elected leaders who are antagonistic to global trade.
Spread of Disease.
-COVID. We were all unprepared. Duh.
So here’s the problem:
Friedman predicted a world that is richer, flatter, and more open - but that’s not what is happening at all.
Yes, we are richer. Yes, we are more connected.
But open?
In fact, it’s the exact opposite.
Across the World, the walls are going up.
A more recent political influence is another geopolitical journalist by the name of Tim Marshall.
Marshall is a British geography expert, and in his recent book, The Age Of Walls, he describes a shocking trend.
Nation states across the world are building territorial boundaries like never before.
From India’s eastern border wall with Bangladesh to block climate change refugees, to Morocco’s southern “Wall of Shame” against the nomadic Sahwari rebels.
From the highly militarized Jordanian reinforcements against recent ISIS territory, to the border walls going up across Europe to block migrants.
Everyone is doing it.
And in the age of COVID, this trend is only escalating.
Globalization isn’t over.
It’s just that we prefer to do business with the global marketplace…
From behind the heavily defended walls of a fortress.
When the virus struck, the political walls went up as well.
Suddenly, many borders closed and free movement around the world was temporarily blocked.
And let’s face it, during the depths of COVID, hiding out in a fortress seemed like a pretty damned good strategy.
New Zealand and Taiwan had powerful (physical and technological) walls in place that made it easy to block outsiders and protect their populations.
Even better that they were island fortresses.
Ride out the storm in safety.
When you go through a global pandemic, it changes you.
I’ve recently been pondering the question about before/after COVID - about how it changed the behavior of individuals, groups, corporations, governments.
The simple answer is the experience of COVID-19 has led to insularity and turning inward.
Turning inward towards self-interest, family interest, group interest, national interest.
When we saw how things went down, we learned about dependency.
We adapted to a dangerous environment and learned, “I need to do everything I can to secure my own position while not being dependent on others.”
This happened at every level - from corporate supply chain shutdowns in China to individual lockdowns and masks that protected us from others.
Essentially, we all learned to build walls during COVID in different ways.
Radical self reliance.
Fortifying personal, family, tribal, national security - before we consider the needs of the global commons.
Sometimes this is a good thing, sometimes it’s a really bad thing - but regardless of our opinion…
It’s where things are going.
So as the world re-opens, we need to consider the environment we now find ourselves in:
Enter fortress world.
Meaning that in a world that is more global than ever, but everyone is building fortresses…
We essentially need to do the same thing.
How can we take matters into our own hands and secure our own destiny, so that no matter what… we are good?
Consider corporate behavior.
This is a very difficult job market, and it will probably only get worse.
The widespread layoffs are a direct result of fortress mode, as companies tighten their belt and put up walls to ride out the storm.
The corporate board prioritizes it own survival over any employee. The walls are to defend the equity, not the labor.
Employees can no longer depend on the friendliness of the corporation to take care of them.
To the contrary, they might get cut, and instead, they should be preemptively building their own fortresses - skill development, second incomes, and always keeping an ear out for another offer.
Or starting your own business.
The upside of fortress world is that we learn to cut our dependencies and spend more time securing our position.
The downside is extractive behavior.
Essentially, the fortress mindset can go too far - when the hoarding of resources comes at the direct expense of the commons.
For example, consider a very likely scenario where a large fossil fuel company is entirely aware of the risks of climate change but has no interest in changing their business model.
In a cynical outcome, this company might plan for climate change by building a corporate fortress that allows them to continue business as usual amid volatile weather.
Essentially, they learn to buy their way out of climate change. They are safe, others aren’t.
And they can continue to make the problem worse.
We are in the very early days of understanding what a globalized fortress world looks like.
In any event - there is a very simple lesson that sits at the crux of this whole worldview:
Put Your Oxygen Mask On Before You Help Other People
We can’t operate in this landscape - from a social, emotional, financial, or political perspective - unless we are already individually secure.
And once we are in secure position - then we can start to tackle harder problems and think about the needs of the global commons.
Closing argument:
Build your fortress. Everybody’s doing it.